WITH maglev technology effectively ruled out for the 1300 km high speed line planned between Beijing and Shanghai (RG 8.03 p484), a serious battle is shaping up between rival interests promoting Japanese Shinkansen, French TGV and German ICE technology. Already it is looking like a re-run of the fight to supply equipment for South Korea’s Seoul - Pusan high speed line in the late 1980s, with politicians and industrialists seeking to court the Chinese - a call for tenders is expected in the next few months.
After earlier indications that the Shinkansen promoters were ahead in the race, historical sensitivities dating back to the 1930s appear to have influenced recent developments. There are reports that Japanese Transport Minister Chikage Ogi returned from a three-day visit to Beijing in early August without meeting key senior officials, and we understand that a lobbying trip to China by the Japan Business Federation planned for mid-August had to be postponed because of local antipathy. Earlier, Japan was planning to offer a loan on favourable terms that could be used to help fund the line, estimated to cost around 100bn yuan.
France’s Minister for Overseas Commerce François Loos managed a visit to Beijing at the end of July. He told the French business newspaper Les Echos that ’none of the Chinese officials said to me that all had been settled in favour of the Japanese’.
Few things are certain when the stakes are so high, but the bidders should bear in mind that the Chinese have made rapid strides in developing their own high speed train technology. China’s expertise in building new lines is not in question, and whatever deal emerges in the end is bound to hinge on technology transfer. There are big lessons to be learnt from what happened in South Korea.
One option would be to open the contracts for electrical and mechanical equipment to fully-competitive bidding. But experience to date in Taiwan suggests that a marriage of Japanese and European high speed technology could be fraught with obstacles.
