UK: Rail passenger numbers will grow steadily even under the most pessimistic scenarios and could double by 2050, according to research undertaken by consultancy Steer for the Railway Industry Association.
Passenger volumes could grow between at least 37% and nearly 100% up to 2050, when compared with the pre-pandemic peak. ‘Under any scenario GB rail demand will grow well beyond the capacity provided for today, growth that government policy, rail services and operators will need to accommodate’, Steer says.
Demand drivers include population and economic growth but also policy interventions.
‘Under the lowest growth scenario, even if the UK government does nothing and lets the industry drift along as it is, rail passenger numbers still grow by a third in the 25 years to 2050’, commented RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan when the report was published on February 19. ’Alternatively, if a future government adopts a bold and ambitious strategy to improve the customer offer and drive some behavioural change, passenger numbers could double by 2050, dramatically increasing revenues. Freight is also likely to grow in this time, with the government itself setting a 75% growth target over the next 25 years.
‘So there is clearly a huge opportunity to expand rail travel, benefiting the UK’s economy and its connectivity, as well as bringing social and decarbonisation benefits. To achieve this, we need to see rail reform and a long-term rail strategy as soon as possible, including a plan for increased north-south capacity, which all rail experts agree will not be delivered under current plans.’
