UK: There has been a significant increase in negative sentiment among rail supply businesses over the last 12 months, and more than half believe the industry will contract in the next year, according to polling commissioned by the Railway Industry Association.
‘The survey’s conclusions are deeply concerning’, said RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan on November 1. ‘They show rail business leaders in the UK anticipating a contraction in the rail market, at a time when UNIFE, the European trade association, is predicting 3% rail market growth every year around the world.’
The survey of 200 leaders across the UK railway supply sector was undertaken by Savanta in September and October. It found that:
- 24% think the supply industry will grow in the coming year, and 54% say it will contract — the highest negative rating in the last five years;
- 48% think their own business will grow, while 28% say it will contract in the coming year — the lowest cohort predicting growth since the survey was first conducted in 2019, and a worse figure than during the coronavirus pandemic;
- 83% think there will be a hiatus in rail work over the next year, owing to factors including delays in reforms related to the creation of Great British Railways and uncertainty over the completion of major projects;
- the three main measures rail businesses will take in response are freezing/slowing recruitment (44%, up from 26% in 2022), prioritising work outside the UK (42%), and pausing or slowing plans to expand in the UK (35%);
- only 13% of respondents believe that the government will achieve its rail decarbonisation targets of removing all diesel-only trains from the network by 2040 and achieving a fully net zero railway by 2050.
Caplan said this lack of confidence would impact on recruitment and expansion plans. ‘With many rail business leaders still reeling from the news that HS2 Phase 2 between Birmingham and Manchester has been cancelled, the findings from this survey support the need for more certainty from the government on what national, regional and local rail work — both track and train — it wants the railway industry to deliver in the months ahead.’
RIA has called on the government to set out a clear roadmap for investment, including the putative Network North, the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline and the Integrated Rail Plan for the North & Midlands, along with a plan for the mix of new and refurbished trains it wants to see in the years ahead.
