UK: The Rail Safety & Standards Board has developed a standardised set of climate change scenarios to enable the industry to take a consistent approach to risk assessments, asset design and strategic planning.
The projections based on different scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions set out how hot summer temperatures might be, the frequency of intense storms or heavy rainfall and how quickly sea levels might rise along coastal tracks.
The primary agreed scenarios are:
- RCP 6.0. Aligned with the currently observed emissions levels, this is the primary scenario for risk assessments and assumes moderate warming with global temperatures likely to rise by about 2-3°C by 2100.
- RCP 8.5. The high emission or ‘business-as usual’ scenario assumes global emissions are not reduced and temperatures will rise by 4°C or more. This is the primary scenario for stress testing infrastructure and testing against high-intensity rainfall.
‘For years, the rail industry has taken different approaches to climate change projection, with some planning for moderate temperature rises, with others assuming worst-case extremes’, said RSSB’s Environment Specialist Samuel Jones on January 31.
‘Understanding climate change projections can be challenging due to their complexity and volume. By using an agreed set of projections, across a range of scenarios, the rail industry will be better placed to manage the risks associated with climate change.’
- Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram has appointed Transport Commissioner for Greater Manchester Vernon Everitt to lead an ‘independent and objective’ review of winter weather planning for the Merseyrail network, following severe disruption on January 9. This will also consider the industry’s wider winter planning process and whether lessons have been learned from previous cold spells. The findings will be presented to the Combined Authority’s Transport Committee on March 20.
