WE HAVE lost count of the number of times that high speed maglev projects have been given green lights, go-aheads and approvals in Germany. The latest came at the end of April when Transport Minister Matthias Wissmann said the project to build a Transrapid line between Hamburg and Berlin would continue despite a 10% rise in capital cost and lower revenue forecasts. The extra cost is attributed to a 7 km longer route to take the line to Berlin’s future central interchange at Lehrter, while lower takings reflect acknowledgement that fewer passengers will hover between the two cities.
Wissmann was announcing the results of a study into the viability of the project, now priced at DM9·8bn. Ever reluctant to abandon something treasured by politicians as evidence of Germany’s technological prowess, Wissmann maintained that Transrapid would still be viable. But he is a cautious man, and as on previous occasions, ensured he had a get-out. Before construction tenders are called next year a ’definitive operating and investment cost assessment’ must be drawn up, and if ’significantly higher costs’ are likely to be incurred, the decision will be revisited.
The omens are not good. Just before Wissmann’s announcement the three German civil engineering giants, Philipp Holzmann, Bilfinger & Berger and Hochtief, withdrew. This was to some extent made up by Adtranz joining Thyssen and Siemens as industrial partners, who will together commit DM500m of their own funds, supply the mechanical and electrical equipment and guarantee that it will work. The government will fund construction of the guideway and DB will build and operate it. DB Chairman Heinz Dürr maintained that there was no greater risk for DB than with any other new line: ’the only risk is whether as many passengers as planned will ride it.’
If the trials with Japan’s MLX-01 are anything to go by (RG 5.97 p299), the technical and financial risks are considerable. Just what they may be should be revealed by the results of trials in the Emsland with the next German maglev vehicle, Transrapid 08, now under construction in Kassel. This three-section vehicle weighing 188 tonnes is - like its Japanese counterpart - designed to run at 550 km/h, and it will be available for the federal railway office to test at the end of next year.
Meanwhile, if the objective is to provide fast, frequent, and comfortable service at reasonable cost in a short timescale, upgrading the Hamburg - Berlin main line for ICE trains to run at, say, 225 km/h is surely the best option. o
